College Football week 11 probabilities

I have been messing around with playoffpredictor.com. Still have a long way to go, but I thought I would look at the data for this weeks games and see how it compares to betting available at Draftkings money line. I am looking to exploit situations where the moneyline payout is misplaced compared to the predicted winning probabilities from playoffpredictor.com.

When the expected value on a moneyline bet is greater than 100%, I want to bet that game/team. In this weeks top 11 games, there are 6 games that the computer believes you can make a bet and get an expected payout in excess of 100% of the bet.

The most appealing, from the computer standpoint, is taking Purdue to beat Ohio State, with an expected payout of $2.89 on a $1.00 bet. This intuitively makes sense as Purdue is ranked #19 by the computer (and also #19 by the committee), and #19 beating #4, especially when played in #19 stadium, is very reasonably possible. Probable? no, but the payout at +750 is a huge incentive to bet on Purdue.

The least appealing bet by the computer is Penn State over Michigan, with an expected payout of 57 cents on a $1.00 bet.

Georgia vs Tennessee

Georgia (-1250)
Total return on $1 bet if bet is successful (Georgia wins) = $1 * 1350/1250 = $1.08
P(Georgia wins) = 91%
Expected return of $1 bet on Georgia = $1.08 * 91% = $0.98

Tennessee (+750)
Total return on $1 bet if Tennessee wins = $1 * 850/100 = $8.50
P(Tennessee wins) = 9%
Expected payoff of $1 bet on Tennessee = $8.50 * 9% = $0.765 

Georgia – Tennesse is what is expected — each bet is expected to have a negative return — the house wins both ways.

But sometimes the computer spots something it likes

New Mexico State vs Alabama

No moneyline offered on New Mexico State vs Alabama

Cincinnati vs South Florida

Cincinnati = $1.01
South Florida = $0.36

Michigan vs Penn State

moneyline odds (DraftKings)unbiased probabilities (playoffpredictor.com)Total expected return on $1
Georgia-12500.910.98
Tennessee+7500.090.77
Alabama0.98
New Mexico State0.02
Oregon-6300.780.90
Washington State+4500.221.21
Ohio State-12500.660.71
Purdue+7500.342.89
Cincinnati-22000.971.01
South Florida+11000.030.36
Michigan-1150.711.33
Penn State-1050.290.57

Oklahoma vs Baylor

Mississippi State vs Auburn

Northwestern vs Wisconsin

Utah vs Arizona

Purdue vs Ohio State

Minnesota vs Iowa

Southern Miss vs UTSA

Maryland vs Michigan State

Texas A&M vs Ole Miss

Notre Dame vs Virginia

NC State vs Wake Forest

Arkansas vs LSU

TCU vs Oklahoma State

Washington State vs Oregon

Nevada vs San Diego State

Results will be posted next week!

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