Below is a list of my most useful links on the Cisco Intranet that would be handy to get a generalist SE/SA up and productive. Of course most of these links will not work without access to the Cisco internal network via VPN, and they will not work without logging into Cisco (which is done at id.cisco.com)

Generate estimates, see quotes

Cisco Commerce Workspace – https://apps.cisco.com/Commerce/home – Used to build and share estimates and quotes.

Enterprise Agreement management portal – https://eaccw.cloudapps.cisco.com/app/#/ – Used to see the quotes your software sales specialist puts for EAs – knowledge worker counts, suites covered, etc.

Salesforce – https://ciscosales.lightning.force.com/lightning/ – Where to see deals and AMs push commits.

Connect with product management

topic – topic.cisco.com – Possibly the most important tool for any Cisco presales SE/SA. Look up every question ever asked and any answer ever given in any forum to product management or TMEs. Set data sources to “Newsgroup” to search PM/TME communications and/or “CSOne” to search all previous TAC cases. Leave the other sources unchecked.

Salesconnect – salesconnect.cisco.com – Get internal product TDM decks, see VT slides

Post-sales

TAC case query – https://cae-xmlkwery.cisco.com/main/casekwery.php – This is the one I like the most. There are several portals that will get the same TAC data, but this one organizes the information best.

CCW-R – https://ccrc.cisco.com/ccwr/? – where you can input a serial number and find info on ship date, who it was sold to, and if it is still under E-LLW or TAC support

CCO lookup tool – https://cdca.cloudapps.cisco.com/cdca/lookup.do – Lookup your customers CCO status, see what contracts they are associated to, and even add contracts to their profile, self-service (sometimes works). Try doing a search not on email address (takes too long), but on customer name using exact (not contains). Searching is case-sensitive, so “university of Oklahoma” returns nothing, but “University of Oklahoma” returns the records. If you want to look up yourself use it without the @cisco.com – for example “neaga”, not “neaga@cisco.com”

Smart account info via Cisco Software Central – software.cisco.com – First get access to your customers smart accounts by using the link for “Request Access to an Existing Smart Account”, then use Smart Software Manager to see their licenses, including products registered and pulling licenses.

Smart account reporting – https://software.cisco.com/software/csws/smartaccount/internalReport – use this link when you don’t have access to their smart account

TAC automated scripts – scripts.cisco.com – link for the wireless analyzer

Compensation

visibility – https://visibility.cisco.com/ – See product quotas and attainment, also SPIFF information

sales compensation portal – https://sales-comp.cisco.com/employee/home – Show PE buckets, percentages, base/variable mix.

Numbers

My business reports – https://mbr.cloudapps.cisco.com – See product quotas and attainment for the region. See week to date or quarter to date numbers. Also hit dashboards->Bookings 360. Best way to see product bookings over the last 3 years by account. Hit advanced filters, change from “Sales Hierarchy” to either customer or BE.

Smartsheet – https://app.smartsheet.com/ – where we keep our weekly high/low, and account team members

Centro – https://centro.cisco.com/Americas – How an RM views the sales dashboard. Have to request access.

Installed base reporting

Tansels sheet – https://cisco.sharepoint.com/:x:/r/sites/SLEDArchitecture/_layouts/15/Doc.aspx – This gets it own category. Pulled monthly, I believe.

Cisco Ready – https://rewarddash.cloudapps.cisco.com/#/sales/analysis/asset – How to find out what is at a customer. Use “Install Base” “Total Asset View”. Change the filter to get one account, and then click on the right and download to email/teams. Once downloaded, open the excel and select the data and move it to a pivot table.

HR links

• Workday – workday.cisco.com – Request PTO and see paystubs
• Apps – appstore.cisco.com – A simplified platform for Cisco-approved software and tools.
• Devices – devices.cisco.com – A simplified experience to easily find, order, and get support for your devices.
• HelpZone – cisco.service-now.com/helpzone – A self-service and support portal for all your IT and HR requirements.

BGP / DNS resources

Looking glass – lg.he.net – understand how your customer peers to the internet

DNS lookup tool – dnslytics.com – see your customers registered domains and contact info

CIDR report – cidr-report.org/as2.0/ – see the size and weekly changes of the global internet routing table

Cisco tools

RunOn – runon.cisco.com – Find cloud infrastructure tools that enable multi-cloud and hybrid cloud services.

Public Sector tools

Erate commitment letters – apps.usac.org/sl/tools/commitments-search/AdvancedNotification.aspx – See if your school is funded

Erate eligibility – ciscoerate.com – Is that DNA-A license 100% eligible?

Training

training hours towards 200 – https://wwss.cisco.com/ –

learn – learn.cisco.com

continuing education – ce.cisco.com

digital learning – digital-learning.cisco.com – Good courses to re-certify IE

Cloud portals

login.umbrella.com

console.amp.cisco.com

SecureX – visibility.amp.cisco.com

Webex control hub – admin.webex.com

Demo licenses and hardware

Demo licenses – ibpm.cisco.com – give it some time to come up

Demo hardware – dls.cisco.com – get your customers trial gear

Picklist – pklst.cloudapps.cisco.com – Get old, junked hardware. Sometimes get lucky!

Collab sandbox – collabtoolbox.cisco.com – Create a sandbox, register a DX

Other

Ariba buying – https://s1.ariba.com/gb/?realm=cisco-child&locale=en_US – purchase office supply stuff

Demo

dcloud – dcloud.cisco.com – demo Cisco solutions

Data

eDnA – edna.cisco.com – enterprise data analytics. Snowflake, BI on Cisco data sets

Internal Licenses

Toolbox – toolbox.cisco.com – VMware and Microsoft lab licenses

Meraki licenses – epp.merkai.net – buy Meraki internal licenses at 90% off

Internal Software

Internal builds – ftp://swds.cisco.com/swc/interim – Download gobs and gobs of internal and external software. FTP connection.

Smart account reporting – mce.cisco.com – my cisco entitlements

Ever wondered how odds map from a single game contest to a best of 7 series? For example, say you knew in any single game between team A and team B that team A will win 60% percent of the time. If they were to play a one game series on a neutral floor team A obviously advances 60% of the time. But what if they play a 7 games series (all on a neutral floor).  What do team A’s odds improve to?  

This can be computed analytically and straightforward. ChatGPT says to use the binomial distribution, but I’m not sure that’s 100% correct yet. Binomial will get you the probability team A gets exactly 5 wins in a 7 trials, but of course that can’t happen as after you win 4 the series is over. So, let’s just exhaust all possibilities between team H(favored) and team A(underdog):

For team H to win in 4 games there is one way: HHHH, total probability is p⁴  where p is defined as the probability team H wins any one game (60% from our original question).  0.6⁴ = .1296 = 12.96% ≈13%.  Meaning there is a 13% team H will sweep. 

Team H can win in 5 games 4 different ways: HHHAH, HHAHH, HAHHH, AHHH.  Each has a probability of p⁴ (1-p) = 0.05184 in our scenario. Multiplying by the 4 ways to achieve that result leaves a total probability of 4p⁴ (1-p) = 20.736%.  

Team H can win in 6 games 10 different way and in 7 games 20 different ways (reader can check those for themselves), so final probability for team H to win a 7 game series is:

Where q is defined as (1-p)

Run the numbers and you find that 60% for a single game translates into 71% for a seven-game series (71.0208% to be exact).  So, a 7 game series will draw out the better team by a benefit of 11% for a team that is already 10% better than a 50/50 coin flip.

Running the number for other values of p you get:

So it gives a 2x boost initially, with diminishing returns as you get past 80-90%. Charted out it looks like this:

To me its compelling at p=80% or so. p=80% becomes 97%. p=80% means the team is -400 – bet $400 to receive $500.   So—unless your team is a -400 favorite in game 1, don’t be too confident they will win the 7-game series.  In fact, you can extrapolate the series winning odds from the odds from game 1.  

Now, how about when team H wins the first 2 games?  I’ve heard it said then for team A to win becomes impossible because they have to win 4 of 5 games.  How likely is that? The formula there becomes:

For a p=.5 that works to 81%  Not very impossible at all, in fact will happen 1 our of 5 times.

Well, then why in the NBA when a team goes up 2-0 they win the series 95%? Because of course the team that goes up 2-0 is better than 50/50 against team B. More like p=0.66 – that gets you to 95% series wins after going up 2-0.     Note, p=0.66 gets you only to 81% for the series before the start of game 1.  

Summarizing the math:

If team A is 2x better (p(A)=.666, will win 2 times out of 3), then they win the series 81%.

If team A is 2x better (p(A)=.666, will win 2 times out of 3) and they win first 2, then they win the series 95%

If team A and team B are equal (50/50), then team A wins the series 50% (duh)

If team A and team B are equal (50/50) and team A wins the first 2, then team A wins the series 81%

If team A is worse (p(A)=.333) but wins first two games, they win the series 54%  — even though they are worse.

Bottom line – winning a 7-game series after going down 0-2 is not hard – as long as you are the better team!  Be twice as good and you have a 47% shot of pulling off the comeback.

Is Free Bird by Lynyrd Skynyrd

I’m a fan of Secretariat. I’m not sure why, but a lot of people are fascinated by this horse. I think that when you see greatness – something that is just clearly apart from all others, it just brings emotions out. Even Jack Nicklaus cried watching Secretariat win the Belmont in 1973, that should tell you something.

You can google quite a lot about how fast Secretariat was (37.7 mph / 2:24 flat for the Belmont), or even how big his heart was (22 pounds, when the average horse heart is about 9 pounds, and the next biggest horse heart on record is ~15 pounds), but those numbers, especially the speed numbers, are clinical. They don’t give the context to let you appreciate. Enter statistics:

It is a very easy statistical problem to look at all the Belmont winner times since 1925 (ever since the track was at its current 1.5 mile length). Secretariat is the record holder at 2 minutes and 24 seconds flat. The next closest horse is 2 minutes and 26 seconds flat. There are about 90 horses between 2:26 to 2:33. Here is the list:

 YEAR	HORSE	         time (seconds)	Z score	percentage
1973	Secretariat *	        144.00	-3.01	99.870%
1992	A.P. Indy	        146.00	-1.83	96.674%
1989	Easy Goer	        146.00	-1.83	96.674%
2001	Point Given	        146.40	-1.60	94.515%
1988	Risen Star	        146.40	-1.60	94.515%
1957	Gallant Man	        146.60	-1.48	93.080%
2015	American Pharoah *	146.70	-1.42	92.263%
1994	Tabasco Cat	        146.80	-1.36	91.373%
1978	Affirmed *	        146.80	-1.36	91.373%
1985	Creme Fraiche	        147.00	-1.25	89.370%
2021	Essential Quality	147.10	-1.19	88.250%
1990	Go And Go	        147.20	-1.13	87.049%
1984	Swale	                147.20	-1.13	87.049%
1968	Stage Door Johnny	147.20	-1.13	87.049%
2004	Birdstone	        147.40	-1.01	84.400%
2009	Summer Bird	        147.50	-0.95	82.950%
1999	Lemon Drop Kid	        147.80	-0.78	78.102%
1983	Caveat	               147.80	-0.78	78.102%
2006	Jazil	        	147.90	-0.72	76.325%
1991	Hansel	        	148.00	-0.66	74.472%
1972	Riva Ridge	       	148.00	-0.66	74.472%
2018	Justify *		148.20	-0.54	70.549%
2003	Empire Maker		148.20	-0.54	70.549%
1987	Bet Twice		148.20	-0.54	70.549%
1982	Conquistador Cielo	148.20	-0.54	70.549%
1948	Citation *		148.20	-0.54	70.549%
1943	Count Fleet *		148.20	-0.54	70.549%
1975	Avatar			148.20	-0.54	70.549%
2019	Sir Winston		148.30	-0.48	68.489%
1965	Hail To All		148.40	-0.42	66.370%
1964	Quadrangle		148.40	-0.42	66.370%
1959	Sword Dancer		148.40	-0.42	66.370%
2016	Creator	        	148.50	-0.36	64.197%
2014	Tonalist		148.50	-0.36	64.197%
2005	Afleet Alex		148.60	-0.30	61.977%
1979	Coastal	        	148.60	-0.30	61.977%
1953	Native Dancer		148.60	-0.30	61.977%
1950	Middleground		148.60	-0.30	61.977%
1937	War Admiral *		148.60	-0.30	61.977%
2007	Rags to Riches (f)	148.70	-0.25	59.717%
1997	Touch Gold		148.80	-0.19	57.424%
1996	Editor's Note		148.80	-0.19	57.424%
1969	Arts And Letters	148.80	-0.19	57.424%
1967	Damascus		148.80	-0.19	57.424%
1962	Jaipur	        	148.80	-0.19	57.424%
1998	Victory Gallop		149.00	-0.07	52.770%
1981	Summing	        	149.00	-0.07	52.770%
1976	Bold Forbes		149.00	-0.07	52.770%
1955	Nashua	        	149.00	-0.07	52.770%
1951	Counterpoint		149.00	-0.07	52.770%
1974	Little Current		149.20	0.05	48.078%
1961	Sherluck		149.20	0.05	48.078%
1942	Shut Out		149.20	0.05	48.078%
1934	Peace Chance		149.20	0.05	48.078%
1947	Phalanx	        	149.40	0.17	43.412%
1938	Pasteurized		149.40	0.17	43.412%
2002	Sarava	        	149.60	0.28	38.836%
1977	Seattle Slew *		149.60	0.28	38.836%
1966	Amberoid		149.60	0.28	38.836%
1960	Celtic Ash		149.60	0.28	38.836%
1940	Bimelech		149.60	0.28	38.836%
1939	Johnstown		149.60	0.28	38.836%
1931	Twenty Grand		149.60	0.28	38.836%
2008	Da' Tara		149.70	0.34	36.601%
1993	Colonial Affair		149.80	0.40	34.411%
1986	Danzig Connection	149.80	0.40	34.411%
1980	Temperence Hill		149.80	0.40	34.411%
1956	Needles	        	149.80	0.40	34.411%
2017	Tapwrit	        	150.00	0.52	30.189%
1936	Granville		150.00	0.52	30.189%
1963	Chateaugay		150.20	0.64	26.217%
1958	Cavan	        	150.20	0.64	26.217%
1952	One Count		150.20	0.64	26.217%
1949	Capot	        	150.20	0.64	26.217%
1945	Pavot	        	150.20	0.64	26.217%
2012	Union Rags		150.40	0.75	22.532%
1971	Pass Catcher		150.40	0.75	22.532%
1935	Omaha *	        	150.60	0.87	19.159%
2013	Palace Malice		150.70	0.93	17.595%
1954	High Gun		150.80	0.99	16.115%
1946	Assault *		150.80	0.99	16.115%
2011	Ruler On Ice		150.90	1.05	14.718%
2000	Commendable		151.00	1.11	13.405%
1941	Whirlaway *		151.00	1.11	13.405%
2010	Drosselmeyer		151.60	1.46	7.207%
1930	Gallant Fox *		151.60	1.46	7.207%
1995	Thunder Gulch		152.00	1.70	4.495%
1944	Bounding Home		152.20	1.81	3.487%
1926	Crusader		152.20	1.81	3.487%
1927	Chance Shot		152.40	1.93	2.672%
1933	Hurryoff		152.60	2.05	2.023%
1932	Faireno	        	152.80	2.17	1.513%
1929	Blue Larkspur		152.80	2.17	1.513%
1928	Vito	        	153.20	2.40	0.815%
1970	High Echelon		154.00		(mud)

Its trivial in Excel to compute a mean of this data set (149.12 seconds) and a standard deviation (sample) of 1.699 seconds. From there you can see a Z score of each winner. I left out 1970 as the track was filled with mud (you can see that race here) . Leaving 1970 out moves Secretariat from a -2.93 to a -3.01, a true -3 Z score event. How rare is that? basic statistics says 99.7% of all data is between -3<Z<+3. So there is .3%, spread .15% in each tail — or that Secretariat happens less than .15% of the time. 99.87% of all Belmont winners will be slower. Put that in perspective with days: 1/0.13% is 770 — or it will take, on average, 770 years for a horse to eclipse Secretariat

Now this data is not perfect, normally you need 200 data points to have a good sample (What Carter Worth taught me). However, it is quite good. I’m sure we can bring in the 2nd and 3rd place finishers to get ~300 data points and still have about the same mean and standard deviation, but I’ll leave that exercise for someone else. Note this data is normally distributed, period. The central limit theorem states that no matter how horserace speeds are distributed, when I pull samples those are normally distributed.

For comparison here is how the top 45 finishers fare – note the 2:26 horses are a 1 in 30 year event. We will see 3 of those in our lifetime. But unless you are sticking around for the year 2750, you are not going to see Secretariat’s record taken down.

My parents moved us in 1981 from Pittsburgh, PA to Birmingham, AL. I was not pleased at the time to move again and lose my friends, so my parents bought me this pinball machine, that I played with for 40 years.

It was finally time to let it go, I sold it in an estate sale for my parents last month. The player 1 did not keep accurate score as the 1,000 wheel was broken, but the player 2 side did keep accurate score. Here is my last time flipping those flippers — 129,070. A very good score! At 150,000 it lit the special for the free extra play. In general any time I played and got over 100,000 I was happy

6034

Dear Friends & Family, Christmas 2021

2021 has been a year I’ll remember for the Aga family. Life is good, and we continue to watch with wonder as our kids grow into the young people God has in store for each one of them. But 2021 was also a year of a missed opportunity for me.

Austin (23) is turning into a world explorer. He spent May in Italy with the OU in Arezzo program, and subsequently graduated from OU in June with his degree in advertising. He took advantage of the work-from-home trend and decided to start his career by moving to Seattle, Washington where he teleworks for Global Gear, an OKC based apparel company. On weekends he is exploring Seattle and the Pacific Northwest and hopes to continue his career with a northwest agency in 2022.

Evan (20) is in his second year at OU, which feels like a first year since last year as a university freshman all his classes were virtual with closed buildings. This year the OU campus feels open again, and Evan is living in an apartment east of campus, with a pair of roommates he has known since kindergarten. He bikes to his classes for engineering a couple times each day, which is giving him great exercise. He has grown well over 6 feet tall, and is easily the tallest Aga. He likes to take quick sprints (he does a half-mile in under 3 minutes ), and he spends weekends with the OU academic bowl team, including tournaments in Oklahoma and Texas.

Addison (14) is in her 10th year of dance at Massay’s, and her 2nd year of cheer at Whittier Middle School.

Emerson (14) is playing point guard for the WMS 8th grade varsity basketball team. She has a great team and group of friends, and she practices and gets better each day.

Addison and Emerson came with Shelli and I to Portugal this summer, where we got to explore Lisbon and Porto. We rented a car for a week and made it to the mountains that separate Portugal from Spain.

Neville’s parents Hoshi and Nergish decided to move from Birmingham to Norman to be closer to their grandkids. They have settled into a senior living center in Norman and Neville gets to drop by throughout the week. It is a very different dynamic than having them 700 miles away. They have gotten to see one of Emerson’s basketball games and weekly lunches with their kids and grandkids.

Shelli’s parents have had a challenging 2021 with Donnie getting a cancer diagnosis, but the great news is that reasonably early detection has given him a good prognosis, and he is feeling better now than he has felt at any time this year.

Shelli is active daily in her local yoga studio, fit and strong as ever. She is practicing headstands and keeping our family on track with all the events, activities, and homework of the girls.

As for me, after running what is likely my final half-marathon in October, I found out I have a broken heart (literally, not figuratively) and will need surgery in 2022 . I will finish up my night MBA program from OU this summer. Work at Cisco is humming along fine, I am in my 13th year of architecting networks at OU/OSU and school districts around the state. I did have an opportunity to move to the beach in Daphne, AL. Really a dream job for me at this career stage — Cisco security in commercial covering Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Looking back now I am very upset with myself for turning it down. I think about that bungled opportunity daily. I thought I was putting my girls needs ahead of my needs, but in reality I did not show the leadership and vision that the head of a family should show. At least now I know what was the biggest mistake of my life. One day soon I do want to get back to Alabama and the beach.

We hope this letter finds you well and thriving. Best wishes for a joyous holiday season and an exciting 2022.

Neville, Shelli, Addison, Emerson, Austin and Evan

New Cisco switches come with a RFID tag. Need to do inventory? No need to move the switch all around looking for serial numbers, just use a scanner and read them in as you enter the room!

I bought a sub $100 scanner on Amazon (Thincol RFID reader) . It works as a keyboard — when it comes into contact with a RFID tag it energizes the tag and types out the info on the tag. This particular scanner works only with windows (or in my case a windows VM via virtualbox).

I was trying to RFID a switch with this serial:

FCW2141L002

And when I used the RFID scanner, it outputted this info:

36142D8D4000B1E343AEC98B4633183064000000000000000000

So, how in the world do you get to the serial from that hex gobbledygook? Read on!

There is this article on cisco.com on RFID tag identification. It seems to be the only article out there. It has some good info in it, mostly behind the theory, but lite on practicality. What is output from the scanner is only the Electronic Physical Code (EPC) at 208 bits. The tag ID and user memory portion are not read/output (at least I could not get anything there). Of those 208 bits:

• Bits 1-8 are for the EPC header and say ’36’ in hex (0x36)
• Bits 9-11 are for the filter and read ‘0’ in hex (0x0)
• Bits 12-14 are for the partition and read ‘5’ in hex (0x5)
• Bits 15-34 are for the GS1 company prefix (whatever that is) and read on my switch ‘0B635’ in hex (0x0B635). Note this is different than the example given on cisco.com which is 7 characters: 0746320
• Bits 35-58 are for some item reference (again, whatever that is) and read ‘0002C7’ in hex (0x0002C7)
• Finally bits 59-135 are where the serial number is

This is very non-intuitive (hey, it’s Cisco, not Meraki). Speficially if you look at the first 2 bytes that come back on the scanner (3614) – the 36 maps exactly to 36 for the EPC header, but the next byte (14) the “1” maps to all bits 9-11 for the filter (all zeros) and 1/3 of the bits 12-14 for the partition (specifically the first 1 in 101). The first half of the “4” maps to the rest of the filter 01 and the last half of the “4” maps to the first part of the GS1 company prefix (00). Confused? Yes you are.

Now the simple thing to do is put the string you get back from the RFID scanner in a HEX to binary converter like this one. Then on the resulting string back will be 206 bits long, like this

11011000010100001011011000110101000000000000001011000111100011010000111010111011001001100010110100011000110011000110000011000001100100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Why 206 bits and not 208? There are 0 leading zeros you have to put in for the ’36’ on the EPC header. So add in 2 leading zeros and you get:

0011011000010100001011011000110101000000000000001011000111100011010000111010111011001001100010110100011000110011000110000011000001100100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Now that you have 208 bits, you want to grab bits 59-135 (because you want 77 bits starting at position 59). Getting that out gives you:

1000110 1000011 1010111 0110010 0110001 0110100 0110001 1001100 0110000 0110000 0110010

(spaces added every 7 bits for readability)

Then you take those bits (with the spaces every 7 characters) and put them into a binary to ASCII converter: and you get: FCW2141L002.

Voila! FCW2141L002 from 36142D8D4000B1E343AEC98B4633183064000000000000000000

I decided to move my blog from my hosting in my Cisco C220 upstairs in my attic to a lightsail product on AWS (Is it AWS or aws?). Why did I decide to do this after refusing to for ~10 years? Well, mostly I know a guy who started at AWS and I figure if AWS is ever a company I want to work for I need to have production systems on it, not just science projects in the cloud.

I was going to do an EC2 image, but one of the first things you discover in the updated console is a compute service named Lightsail. Lightsail has the storage and network packaged in, and then also common applications, and wordpress is about the most common of them all.

The process was simple, standing up the lightsail image was ~5 minutes. I exported everything from my on-prem blog, and imported it into the new AWS image. The first import did not really go well — my on-prem blog has a user named ‘neville’ and the created AWS lightsail image has a root user called ‘user’. Importing my content to ‘user’ instead of ‘neville’ was a problem for me. The solution is not to fix and rename the user account, the correct fix was to create another lightsail image and create the new user ‘neville’ there before importing. Treat these cloud compute instances like cattle, not pets. If there is an issue kill it and get another one off the feed lot.

One thing that did happen, that I’m not too happy about though, I decided to create my 2nd lightsail image bigger (2x the RAM and storage — from the $3.5/month to the $5/month). When I got the new one up I quickly deleted the old (you are charged by the hour). Right after I deleted I thought I’d like to do some performance comparisons between the 2 instances— but there is no undo button. You delete it and it is gone 🙁

Overall, meh – fine. I’m sad to see things go from my attic, but as Andy Jassy says “you can’t fight gravity”. In this case, I can’t fight the cloud.

Every four years I make a blog post about who I am going to vote in for president. I do this mostly for myself and my kids- I want them to understand who gets my vote and why. I want them to understand my morals, my beliefs, and believe that our votes matters, not because my one vote will tip any scales, but it will define what I believe in and who I want to lead me to get there.

2020 is a re-election year. In re-election years the decision becomes more of a referendum on the incumbent. From that lens Trump has accomplished some amazing things:

-On the economy this is the best financial backdrop to do business for corporate America ever, and I mean ever. The cost to borrow and build a business has never been lower. Each week I get unsolicited mailings offering $200,000 or more of business working capital.  10-year rates are at 0.6%. The stock market has about doubled in just four years (the S&P 500 on the night Trump was elected traded at 2,000.  Today it trades at 3,300.  The advancement in the NASDAQ-100 is much more profound, QQQ traded at 110 in November 2016, it was been as high as 303 just this month (September 2020).   Trump has fought hard for small manufacturing business and US materials companies with great success. He has had a strategy from day 1 – that was to put America first, and a good leader sets a vision that everyone can get behind and drives the execution of that vision. On that scale Trump scores well.   I very much applaud him for easing the corporate foreign tax repatriation and brining money back into the US.

However if you look more closely, the advances in the stock market have all been in MAGA – Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple – not make America great again. In fact, the sectors and industries Trump champions are down in the dumps.  Ford trades at $7 (vs $12 when Trump was elected), GE trades at $7 (vs $30 when Trump was elected). The pattern holds for 3M, GM, Goodyear, on and on.   No matter how much he wants to champion the industrial Midwest, I am afraid that part of American history is simply dead, and no one has the ability to create demand there, no matter how much they try.

-On foreign affairs Trump has accomplished amazing things in that arena as well.  The UAE and Bahrain have both signed peace agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia may be next.  A Saudi-Israel peace deal will drive peace and stability for the world. The critics said “Don’t antagonize the middle east by moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.” Trump did not listen, he trusted his head and his gut, and the region is more stable than it was before.  Trump drone-strike-killed (call it what it is-extrajudicial political assassination) Qasem Soleimani, a person akin to the vice-president of Iran.  I never heard of the man and I thought his drone strike assassination would lead to full blown war between the US and Iran. That did not happen. The Palestinians, who have all along been the rogue actors in the region, have been marginalized and accepted universally for the bad actors they are.  That is a significant development that will lead to peace.  Relations with North Korea, something way beyond belief, have happened. There is no way any of this would have happened under a Hillary Clinton administration, and no way this will happen under a Joe Biden administration. Heck Joe Biden voted to not go after Osama Bin Laden! Biden was afraid of military operations on Afghanistan soil. It is hard for me to cast Biden as anything other than a weakling who does not want to upset anyone. Thank goodness Obama did not listen to him there.  Biden to me seems like he is the poster child fanboy for today’s millennial generation who are scared stiff to be called or thought of as racist, sexist, or any other -ist. An apologist, someone who is meek, someone who does not make you believe America is the greatest country on Earth, rather some bad plague that needs to be conformed into submission of “everyone is good, even the lost souls burning Portland and Seattle are somehow always worthy of respect and having their viewpoint heard.”

-On China and trade I disagree with Trump’s protectionism, but I give him credit for creating a tough issue and tackling it head on.  No one was talking about US-China forced tech transfer before 2016.

-On other issues, like climate change and COIVD- I happen to agree with Trump. I’m glad we withdrew from the Paris climate accords, and I support cutting off funding to WHO. We can’t blindly go with the crowds here because it is the easiest political thing to do while making us feel like good citizens – we have to ask if we are getting value for our investment and in places we are not holding people accountable and demanding change. Trump does that. I find it ridiculous that the governor of Washington State is blaming his state’s forest fires on climate change. This is 2020 where literally we shut down the entire globe over the Spring and Summer. I know we did not do that for climate change, but if that is not good enough to appease the green people what possibly will? They will never be happy, they will never lead. They will always just complain. To me they sound like a noisy going that should have no credibility and no standing.

So overall, I give Trump all the credit in the world for all his actions. His policy and actions have been far, far better than I could have ever imagined.

 

But is that what I want in a president? A man of results, who views the world in terms of winners and losers?

Trumps silence on black lives matter is troubling to me.  In my own neighborhood there are moms teaching their adolescent black sons to be home at dark, how to deal with police, teachers, society in general.  That is not OK.  A generation is teaching their (black) kids, how to live and grow up in fear. That fear is very, very real. That is abhorrent.

I don’t believe Trump is a racist – he has given many prominent jobs to black people, including winners on the apprentice. However, his silence is problematic.  I never saw Trump call the George Floyd killing murder. He took one year to acknowledge Charlottesville white supremacist as a murder.  This is just too slow, unacceptable.  To be fair, I am leery of black lives matter, because it is divisive – but there are some simple steps he can take to make the mom of a black kid feel more at ease, and his inability to do that is a voting problem for me.

The police in this country are underpaid and teachers are badly underpaid.  Trump and Betsy DeVos are so right on school choice and democrats are so badly wrong. As much as I would like to vote issue by issue, I can’t.

Trump’s need for his own ego, his boundless narcissism, is ridiculous.  I contrast that and think about Ronald Reagan’s self-deprecation.  Humor is one of 5 essential characteristics of leadership.   Trump has none of that. It is a killing character flaw.

To my vote, it is not about what is best for our economy, my job, or my pocketbook this time. It is about the soul of this nation. I don’t want a Faustian bargain. Trump claims to have done more for black people than anyone since Lincoln.  Just because black unemployment is lower in 2019 than it was in 2015 does not mean Trump deserves praise.  It’s like a person that abuses you and then throws a $100 bill in your face and expects you to take it and be grateful. That crap just does not fly with me.

 

Yes, I readily acknowledge things may get worse under Biden. With tax rates ready to soar and big government (the current thinking is there will be a $3 trillion democratic coronavirus bailout), it is totally possible that inflation could come back, the stock market could tank, jobs could be lost, etc.

 

In 2020 I’m not voting for my pocketbook or my standard of living – I’m voting for my soul, that’s why I’m voting Joe Biden.