Two years ago I had this post: https://blog.agafamily.com/2024/03/15/the-best-trade-of-my-life-so-far/ Well, market action the last 2 weeks has been powerful. Seems like it took about 4 weeks for no one to care about politics and look ahead to mega-cap earnings next week.

10 days ago (8 trading days ago) I picked up this position.

This was the morning that orange man suggested that a whole “civilization” might die tonight (it was going to be bridge and power plant day rolled up in one). I figured either way, there was a chance that was a possible short-term bottom and figured I’d throw $1k at it. A call expiring in a week and a half. Figured the most I could lose is $1,260.

Sold call 1 Monday morning for ~$30,

2nd call Wednesday morning for ~$250

and the call expires cash settled tomorrow morning at ~$600.

On the one call that is $420 to $61,175. A 150x return. On a pure percentage basis, this one is even bigger than my NVIDIA trade a couple years ago. Wish I had bought 30 contracts instead of 3.

Or 100 contracts. Can you imagine? You could have turned $42,000 into $7,000,000 in the last 10 days. Profits unlimited, risk defined. This is what options trading is all about, especially for me — I like to swing for the fences from time to time.

Lessons: Politics is short term. It does not lead/drive the market. Earnings expectations do.

Even with the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil at $150 a barrel, how will that affect META’s $60B of annual earnings, or their $210B of annual revenue? Maybe a few people cut back on their ads and they go to $50B earned on $200B of revenue. I still want a piece of that. I was dumb to sell a couple weeks ago.

Oh well. Glad to have this win. This gets me back to market performance for the year in this account. Nothing more. Yet.