Habitually Over-rated! clap, clap, clap clap clap!

5 years of college football data are in the books and I have enough data now to look at the playoffPredictor biases and make some determinations about habitually overrated and underrated teams that the playoff committee loves or snubs.

A little primer if you need it — each week of the college football season the computer assigns a rating and ranking to each top 25 team. During weeks 9-15 the playoff committee also assigns each team a ranking. Each week we can compare the committee rankings to the computer rankings and make an objective determination about over-ranking or under-ranking.

Using final season average rating biases, here is what we have after 5 years.

Conclusion? The perennial over-ranked team are also the teams that most often make the college football playoff. 3 out of 5 years for Alabama, Clemson, Washington and Baylor. 4 out of 5 years for Oklahoma and Mississippi State.

Interestingly, Ohio State (the only team besides Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma to make multiple playoff appearances) has zero seasons over-rated or under-rated by the committee.

But there you have it. Conculsive proof that the rich in college football get richer, not because they are better, but because us humans are biased to think of the bluebloods as better.









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