I am going to use my model and track prediction accuracy for beating Vegas for 2023. Picks will be tracked at predictions.collegefootballdata.com. 2 accounts will be used to track the model:
- @PlPredict_all for all FBS games, and
- @playoffPredict for high-confidence games per the model, additionally
- @cfb_vegas_line for the Tuesday (opening Vegas line)
Definition of high confidence is >= 7.5 points difference between Vegas line and computer model. Only applies after week 2 (weeks 3 till end of season)
Model will not be updated within a week (picks locked on Tuesday)
u/nevilleaga is going to pick all games using the trailing 15 weeks of data (meaning if it is week3 using week 1-2 data from 2023 and using week 3-17 data from 2022
use @CiscoNeville to mess with any personal ideas. One example is looking at the line and predicting something close to the line skewed by the method
Results published here as comments
Week 1 results –
@PlPredict_all = 0.55 with MAE of 13.75
@nevilleaga (using last year’s ratings) = .55 with MAE of 12.95
@cfb_vegas_line = 0.50 with MAE of 11.10
Week 2 results –
@PlPredict_all = 0.48 with MAE of +5.27 (over Vegas)
u/nevilleaga = . 46 with MAE of +2.24
@cfb_vegas_line = 0.42 with MAE of +0.43